Leaked Hun Sen clip blamed for Paetongtarn and Pheu Thai’s popularity plunge: Nida Poll

Nida Poll says leaked Hun Sen audio clip caused Paetongtarn and Pheu Thai’s popularity to plunge, benefiting Bhumjaithai and its leader Anutin Charnvirakul.

The director of Nida Poll has pointed to a leaked audio clip involving Cambodian strongman Hun Sen as the main reason behind the sharp drop in popularity of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her Pheu Thai Party. The situation, he noted, has created an opening for the Bhumjaithai Party to gain ground.

Audio leak triggered voter backlash

Dr Suvicha Pau-aree, director of the National Institute of Development Administration’s opinion survey centre (Nida Poll), said the leaked conversation between Paetongtarn and former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen was a key factor behind the slump in popularity.The audio, released just before the poll was conducted from June 19 to 25, revealed Paetongtarn criticising the commander of Thailand’s Second Army Area in an apparent effort to curry favour with Hun Sen. The backlash among Thai voters, fuelled by nationalistic sentiment, followed swiftly.

Poll numbers reveal sharp drop

The Nida survey showed Paetongtarn’s popularity plunging from 30.9% in the first quarter to just 9.2%. Similarly, support for Pheu Thai dropped from 28.05% to 11.52%.

Suvicha said such a dramatic decline could not be explained by general dissatisfaction with government performance alone. “If it were just policy-related disappointment, the numbers wouldn’t have fallen this drastically,” he stated.Unclear if damage is permanent

Suvicha noted that the full impact of the clip leak would become clearer in the third-quarter poll. “We need to wait and see whether this is a temporary backlash or a lasting shift in public opinion,” he said.

Still, he warned that regaining lost ground would be difficult unless Paetongtarn could find a way to politically outmanoeuvre Hun Sen, given the current surge in Thai nationalism.

Bhumjaithai emerges as biggest gainer

While Pheu Thai stumbles, Bhumjaithai Party and its leader Anutin Charnvirakul appear to be gaining momentum. According to the same survey, Anutin’s popularity rose from 2.85% to 9.64%, while Bhumjaithai’s party rating jumped from 3.35% to 9.76%.

Suvicha said Bhumjaithai seems to be attracting former red-shirt supporters disillusioned by Pheu Thai. If an election were held now, he believes Bhumjaithai could win up to 100 seats in the House of Representatives.

He added that if the party performs well in opposition, it could enjoy even greater support in future polls.

(2025/06/29-00:00)