Thai GDP Growth Pegged at 1.8% for 2025 as Trump Tariffs Loom

TRIS Rating flags U.S. trade policies as a major drag on confidence, investment, and trade, urging government to fast-track spending to shore up the economy

 

Thailand's economic growth for 2025 is projected to remain at a modest 1.8%, according to TRIS Rating, which has incorporated the potential impact of U.S. import tariffs into its latest analysis.

 

Public sector investment is anticipated to be the primary economic driver next year, with the ratings agency urging the government to expedite the disbursement of funds for already approved projects to support the country's fragile economy.

 

TRIS Rating has lowered its forecasts for both private sector investment and private consumption, citing U.S. trade policies as a significant factor dampening business and consumer confidence.

 

Furthermore, overall merchandise exports and imports in 2025 are expected to experience slower growth compared to the previous year.

 

While imports are still projected to expand, this is predominantly driven by increased inbound shipments from China.

 

Conversely, exports to the U.S. are forecast to drop by 10.5% in 2025, with exports to other nations (excluding the U.S. and China) growing at a low single-digit rate. 
  

Consequently, total merchandise exports are predicted to see only marginal expansion, at 0.15%.

 

The Thai economy faces a period of considerable uncertainty moving forward. The future remains highly unpredictable due to U.S. trade policy decisions.

 

As countries engage in trade negotiations with the U.S., outcomes are difficult to foresee. Such uncertainty could lead to further delays in private sector investment and negatively affect private consumption.

 

Should U.S. tariff measures be fully implemented, the global economy could face a significant slowdown, which would further exacerbate conditions in Thailand's trade markets. 

 

Additionally, any delays in the 2026 government budget could pose further downside risks to economic growth this year, particularly in the final quarter.
  

Moreover, inflationary pressures that might arise from U.S. tariff measures could postpone policy interest rate cuts in the U.S., resulting in tighter global financial conditions than currently anticipated.

 

Beyond U.S. protectionism, geopolitical tensions continue to be a substantial risk to the global economic system, potentially causing supply chain disruptions, elevated energy costs, and a broader global economic slowdown. Similarly, uncertainties in monetary policy from major economies could lead to volatility in exchange rates and global capital markets.

(2025/06/13-00:00)