S&P Affirms Thailand's BBB+ Rating and Stable Outlook

S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed Thailand's credit rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook, reflecting firm confidence in the nation's economic fundamentals, bolstered by a robust tourism recovery and sustained government investment, according to the Public Debt Management Office

 

S&P Global Ratings has announced on Monday its decision to affirm Thailand's credit rating at BBB+ and to maintain a Stable Outlook.

 

This reaffirmation reflects the agency's continued confidence in the underlying strength of the Thai economy, according to Patchara Anuntasilpa, Director-General of the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO).

 

S&P projects Thailand's economy to grow by 2.3% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.

 

The agency highlighted external risks, particularly uncertainties stemming from the United States' retaliatory tariff policies, as a factor that will require close monitoring.

 

The average Real GDP Growth for Thailand between 2025 and 2028 is anticipated to be around 2.8%.

 

Furthermore, income per capita in 2025 is expected to increase from US$7,500 to US$8,100, partly attributed to a stronger Thai Baht.

 

S&P views Thailand's tourism sector as continuing its robust recovery, anticipating it to be a crucial driving force for economic growth over the next two years.
  

In 2024, Thailand welcomed approximately 35.5 million foreign visitors, a significant 26% increase from the previous year.

 

Although the first quarter of 2025 is forecast to see a slight moderation in growth to around 1.9% year-on-year, S&P expects government initiatives supporting tourism, such as extended visa exemption periods, to continue attracting international tourists.

 

Moreover, S&P believes the Thai government will maintain its strategic focus on investment, particularly within the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and in transport infrastructure projects.

 

State-owned enterprise investment and Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are expected to play a pivotal role in driving this capital expenditure, which, in turn, will enhance Thailand's long-term competitiveness.

 

Regarding Net General Government Debt to GDP, the agency forecasts an increase to 3.3% in 2025, a consequence of the government's continued deficit fiscal policy aimed at supporting economic recovery.

 

Additionally, the government may allocate approximately 157 billion baht from its Digital Wallet scheme to fund other potential investment projects designed to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of global trade uncertainties.

 

Thailand continues to exhibit a strong external finance position, underpinned by a persistent current account surplus.
 

  

S&P anticipates the current account to maintain an average surplus of 1.6% between 2025 and 2028, further supported by robust external financial standing and substantial international reserves.

 

S&P will continue to closely monitor several key factors.

 

These include Thailand's economic growth performance compared to its peer countries, per capita income trends, and the trajectory towards achieving fiscal balance.

 

Furthermore, domestic political stability remains a critical consideration, as it directly influences the continuity and predictability of economic policymaking.

 

"The PDMO, acting as the secretariat for the working group on data integration for credit ratings and national credit image building, will maintain close coordination and provide comprehensive, accurate, and up-to-date information to all credit rating agencies. This ongoing engagement is vital for preserving the confidence of both domestic and international investors," stated Patchara.

(2025/06/02-00:00)