Thai Business Leaders Warn of GDP Impact as They Monitor Potential US Tariff Decisions

Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking prepares for possible trade disruptions following US policy shift

 

Thai business leaders are closely monitoring potential US tariff decisions tonight, warning of a potential hit to the nation's GDP should Thailand be included in any new trade measures. 

 

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has convened on Wednesday to discuss contingency plans, anticipating possible disruptions to trade flows.

 

Thawee Piyapatana, vice chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), speaking at a media briefing, stated that the JSCCIB has been reviewing potential ramifications of the US tariff policy. 

 



 


"We are preparing for various scenarios," he said, "as the exact nature of any US actions remains uncertain." 



The committee has established preliminary response strategies to address potential trade barriers.
  

Poj Aramwattananont, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, emphasised the ongoing collaboration between the government and private sectors to address US trade retaliation measures. 

 

He highlighted Thailand's growing trade surplus with the US, which has risen to 46 billion baht this year, up from 34 billion baht last year. 

 



 


"This figure places us 11th on the list, and it warrants close attention," he noted.


 

Poj pointed out that a significant portion of the trade surplus stems from US investments in Thailand, which are subsequently exported back to the US or sold within the region. 

 


"The actual surplus from Thai-produced goods is considerably smaller," he explained, "with agricultural products contributing approximately $US 2-3 billion." 


 

He suggested exploring measures to increase purchases of US goods to address the trade imbalance.
  



 

The committee acknowledged the unpredictability of the US decision, noting that it could involve country-specific or product-specific tariffs.

 

They stressed the importance of maintaining a positive investment climate, given Thailand's desire to attract US investment.

 

However, business leaders also recognised potential opportunities arising from the US policy shift. They anticipate disruptions to global supply chains, which could create new export opportunities for Thailand. The FTI also anticipates that negotiations with other trade partners may become easier.

 

Concerns were raised about the potential influx of foreign goods into the Thai market, which would require coordinated action from the government and private sector.

 

Initially, the JSCCIB projected a GDP growth of 2.4-2.9% for the current period. However, they now estimate that a US tariff increase affecting Thailand could reduce GDP by 0.2-0.6%, a preliminary assessment.

(2025/04/02-00:00)