Fragile Pheu Thai government braces for no-confidence debate

Thaksin a target amid rumours of full-blown parliamentary exposé of his controversial detention in Police Hospital

The opposition says it will launch a no-confidence debate against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's government. The opposition parties set to submit the motion to the House Speaker on February 27.

Opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut has demanded a five-day debate, but the government is pushing for three days.

The censure debate comes amid rumours of an impending Cabinet reshuffle, stirring unease among government figures. However, PM Paetongtarn has dismissed the rumours, stating, "There are no changes. These reports only create unnecessary uncertainty among ministers. If any adjustments were needed, discussions about performance would be held. Right now, continuity is the priority."Her father, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, echoed her remarks, insisting the Cabinet is still functioning well and adjustments are unnecessary at this stage. Thaksin is considered the de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party.

In short, now is not the right time for a Cabinet reshuffle – especially with the censure debate looming. Making changes now would mean not only facing opposition scrutiny but also dealing with potential discontent among coalition partners over ministerial swaps or portfolio negotiations. It’s clear that Pheu Thai’s power players have opted not to make any moves while they lack the upper hand.

The real threat lies within the government itself. In a fragile coalition of multiple parties, even a small crack or internal friction could destabilise the administration. A minor rift could spiral into a full-blown crisis, potentially sinking the government.

Both Thaksin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra seem well aware of these risks. For now, they have no choice but to navigate these turbulent waters together.Some coalition parties are quite content with the current situation, knowing they hold leverage over Pheu Thai, which relies on them to maintain power.

Meanwhile, others are engaged in power struggles with big business, pushing for ministerial changes to solidify their political base for future battles. Some are simply biding their time, conserving energy and resources for the next election.

These different priorities are one reason Thaksin has grown increasingly frustrated – dealing with obstructionists, game-players, and indecisive allies who avoid outright confrontation.

At the same time, Thaksin himself is under fire, particularly from opposition figures like Pol Gen Sereepisuth Temeeyaves, who handed over classified documents allegedly recording Thaksin’s controversial detention on the Police General Hospital’s 14th floor last year – to opposition leader Natthaphong for scrutiny in parliament.

This move prompted Thaksin to publicly sever ties with Sereepisuth.

However, veteran politicians know one thing: crossing Sereepisuth usually comes at a cost. A seasoned investigator, he has taken down many high-profile figures in his time. 

If the "14th-floor files" become the focal point of a full-blown parliamentary exposé, it could unsettle the government, potentially implicating ministers and high-ranking officials.

Adding to the drama, opposition MP Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn from Palang Pracharath has cast doubt on the opposition-leading People’s Party's true stance, suggesting it is coordinating with Pheu Thai behind the scenes.

For the People’s Party and Natthaphong, this censure debate is a crucial test – can they maintain the same aggressive attacks they once used against the “3Ps” of Generals Prawit Wongsuwan, Anupong Paochinda, and Prayut Chan-o-cha?  Or will they prove their critics right?

(2025/02/11-00:00)