ADB revises Thailand's GDP growth forecast to 2.8% in 2025

Tourism and government investment in ports and rail systems remain the country's main economic drivers

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its forecast for Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.8% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 2.7% for both years, made in December 2024.

In the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report for April 2025, the ADB stated that Thailand's main economic drivers are tourism and government investment in ports and rail systems. Although private consumption may slow down due to high household debt, part of this will be offset by economic stimulus measures and debt relief programs, the bank noted.

The ADB forecasts that Thailand's economy will maintain its growth momentum in the short term, with tourism continuing to be the primary driver of economic growth. The number of tourists is expected to increase to 39.5 million this year and 41 million next year, thanks to the visa exemption program, rising demand among travelers, the expansion of flight routes, and increased flight frequencies.Exports of goods and services are expected to grow moderately in 2025 and 2026. The bank added that goods exports are likely to grow in line with global trade, increasing foreign demand, and the recovery of the electronics product cycle. It is anticipated that several trade partners will accelerate imports from Thailand to cope with rising trade barriers.

Electronics, automotive parts, and agricultural products remain the main export items. Agricultural exports are expected to increase due to sufficient water for cultivation and higher prices for some crops, particularly rice, which will encourage farmers to expand planting areas for off-season crops.

However, the bank predicted that the resurgence of trade tensions between the United States and China may challenge Thailand’s export growth this year and next. U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum could impact exporters of related products in Thailand, and tariffs on imported cars, pharmaceuticals, and chips could significantly affect exports as well.

The ADB also mentioned that economies in developing Asia and the Pacific are projected to grow 4.9% this year, down from 5.0% last year. Regional growth is expected to decline further to 4.7% next year due to tariffs and trade uncertainty. Inflation is projected to moderate to 2.3% this year and 2.2% next year as global food and energy prices continue to decline.

“Economies in developing Asia and the Pacific are supported by strong fundamentals, which underpin their resilience in this challenging global environment,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park. “Rising tariffs, uncertainties about U.S. policy, and the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions are significant challenges to the outlook. Asian economies should retain their commitment to open trade and investment, which have supported the region’s growth and resilience.”

(2025/04/09-00:00)