A closer look at the People's Party ‘tough’ race to win local power

Campaign shaping up to be intense race as key political heavyweights from each camp jump in

Promising to transform Thailand from the ground up, the opposition People’s Party is competing in the country’s biggest local elections in the hope that it will not end up winless as speculated.

Elections for Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) presidents are being held in 47 provinces across Thailand on Saturday as the local chiefs complete their tenures.

The PAO is the biggest local administrative body in the kingdom, responsible for coordinating with town and municipal bodies and the Sub-district Administrative Organisations in each province in developing the area, such as constructing roads and relieving and preventing natural disasters.

The campaign is shaping up to be an intense race as key political heavyweights from each camp are jumping in, including ex-PM and Pheu Thai Party patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra.

The People’s Party has sent candidates to compete in 17 provinces, while Pheu Thai is competing in 16. Bhumjaithai is believed to be backing candidates in 15 provinces. Also, the “Ban Yai”, translated as Big Houses, meaning influential local political networks, are said to have candidates in 27 provinces.

Thaksin’s aim to ‘bring back’ the North from the People’s Party

Several places in the Northern region have become battlegrounds between Pheu Thai and the biggest opposition party, as the region is viewed as the ruling party’s stronghold.

During the 2023 election, many constituencies in the North saw the now-defunct Move Forward Party winning the poll, including Chiang Mai, where the MFP won seven of 10 seats, while Pheu Thai won only two, despite the province being dubbed “Shinawatras’ home town” since Thaksin was born there.

“Please give me back all my 10 MPs. I arrived here, so let’s return them to me. They [People’s Party MPs in Chiang Mai] are all talk. They cannot only talk but must work. It’s better to choose the party that can do things,” Thaksin said in December last year while on a campaign trail in San Sai district.

Pheu Thai has sent incumbent PAO president Pichai Lertpongadisorn to defend the position from People’s Party rival Pun-Arj Chairatana.

Thaksin also chose to give his final campaign speech in Chiang Mai.

Rare winning chance in Isaan

The People’s Party has fielded only one candidate in the Northeastern region, in Mukdahan province, endorsing Supoj Suariyaphong, who is a descendant of a locally influential family.

However, the progressive party has a bitter history with elections in Isaan, as it lost to Pheu Thai in the PAO elections in Udon Thani and Ubon Ratchathani earlier.

Supoj is also taking on a candidate from Pheu Thai in this PAO battle, and the region is also viewed as a Pheu Thai stronghold.



Possible winless drought

Many political pundits have said it is possible that the People’s Party could end up without a victory, while Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai might take most PAO-chief positions.

“The local election is different from the general election,” Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, told The Nation.

Yuttaporn said the People’s Party could lose a number of its votes because of the absence of early voting and out-of-district voting, unlike the general election.

This means local influential powers, which mostly belong to Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai, have more advantages than the People’s Party candidates, he said.

According to data from the Election Commission, voter turnout for previous PAO elections has been significantly lower than that of the 2023 poll. For example, Chaiyaphum had a turnout of only 23.3% when its PAO election was held in August last year, according to Bangkok-based organisation WeVis.

“But this does not mean there is no hope for the People’s Party. They may get one to four PAO chairpersons,” Yuttaporn said.

The party is seen as having a possible chance of winning in certain strongholds like Nakhon Nayok, Samut Songkhram, Samut Sakhon and Trat, thanks to its candidates’ familiarity with locals.

The academic advised the party to do “what they are proficient in”, explaining that the People’s Party should create a new “magnet” to draw nationwide popularity instead of competing in local elections.

He noted ex-MFP head Pita Limjaroenrat, who led his now-disbanded party to win the 2023 election, beating Pheu Thai, which had always come first in the past 20 years, adding that the current People’s Party chief, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, is not charismatic enough.

The People’s Party has consistently vowed to change Thailand from the grassroots level while asking for votes from the people, saying it represents a “change” for Thailand from the old power.

The party might do everything in the hope that history does not repeat itself as in 2020, when the Progressive Movement, incarnated after Future Forward (MFP’s predecessor) was dissolved, lost in all 42 PAO polls it contested.

(2025/02/01-00:00)