Thai business leaders urge trade war room, lobbyists as US talks loom

Thailand braces for tough negotiations and potential export tariffs as Commerce Minister Pichai prepares for trip to Washington

Thailand is bracing for trade turmoil with its biggest export market as new US President Donald Trump imposes a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with a 10% on Chinese imports pending a final decision.
Effective February 1, the new tariffs are aimed at reducing US trade deficits.

Countries with the largest trade surpluses with the US are China, Mexico, and Vietnam, while Thailand ranks 10th with a surplus of $51.5 billion.



Washington has already cautioned Vietnam on its trade surplus. Thailand, meanwhile, can expect the US to impose tariffs on its exports within the next one or two months, said Ath Pisalvanich, an economist and advisor to Intelligent Research Consultant (IRC).Washington is focusing on Asia, home to more than half of the top 10 countries contributing to the US trade deficit, he added.   

However, the Thai government has yet to present a clear response plan to US trade pressure.
At recommended the following trade strategy for Thailand:

Instead of focusing solely on increasing imports to reduce the US trade deficit, Thailand should aim for partnerships that attract US investment and integrate the kingdom into the US supply chain.

Thailand should also position itself as a supply hub for agricultural products, given the US is expected to reduce agricultural imports from China.

Ath warned that two centuries of diplomatic friendship with the US would not protect Thailand from Trump’s trade crackdown.

“Therefore, Thai trade negotiators need clear strategies to make mutually beneficial offers to their US counterparts,” he said.

Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said Thailand is under US surveillance and can expect pressure as part of Trump’s focus on countries with significant trade surpluses with the US.

Trump’s approach is strategic and methodical, according to the FTI chief. He advances step by step rather than implementing sweeping policies, employing a strategy of daily policy announcements. Currently, his focus is on Canada, Mexico, and China, followed by Vietnam, but several other countries may soon face similar measures. Trump is leveraging trade policy as a negotiation tool, and the US wields considerable bargaining power over all nations.

Kriengkrai praised Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan’s upcoming US visit in February as a positive step in Thailand’s trade manoeuvring. However, he emphasised the importance of deploying lobbyists in Washington to present Thailand’s trade position to US decision-makers. 

“Employing a skilled lobbyist is essential for Trump’s administration, as economic diplomacy has intensified. A lobbyist accompanying the [Pichai] delegation would help facilitate informal discussions and strengthen negotiations,” Kriengkrai said.

“This visit represents a proactive step, but it must be accompanied by well-prepared proposals for trade exchange. The US is expected to make extensive demands to reduce its trade deficit. Thailand must work to safeguard the mutual interests of both countries and ensure fair and balanced trade negotiations.”

The Thai private sector is urging the government to set up a trade war room, including business leaders, to facilitate information exchange, monitor developments, and strategise effectively. This would enable Thailand to adopt both proactive and reactive approaches simultaneously, Kriengkrai said.



Wisit Limluecha, vice chair of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and Board of Trade, emphasised that Thailand’s top priority should be assembling a strong negotiation team and finalising arrangements for meetings. The Commerce Ministry’s upcoming negotiations in February would provide an opportunity to ease tensions by demonstrating preparedness. Trump’s approach is to negotiate with individual countries, making it essential to clearly explain Thailand’s trade balance, he said.

“It must be clarified that most of the goods contributing to Thailand’s trade surplus with the US are products manufactured in Thailand under US investment and then re-exported to the US for final assembly, which also benefits US manufacturing,” said Wisit.

He added, “Thailand produces intermediate goods for US companies to brand and sell. This is an issue that needs to be addressed transparently. Additionally, Thailand may need to increase imports from the US as part of the exchange. At the very least, the first step is to communicate clearly that Thailand is ready to negotiate and to highlight that Thailand’s trade surplus ultimately benefits the US as well.”

(2025/01/28-00:00)