Thaksin’s high-stakes gamble: Power, politics and family

With the upcoming PAO elections serving as a key test, the former premier’s political maneuverings aim to secure the Shinawatra family’s dominance

Thaksin Shinawatra’s latest gamble for power may be quite risky, especially since his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is also part of the game.

This is because even though he holds no official political posts, all roads lead to him opening and closing deals in this game of power. 

Additionally, Thaksin has been serving as a shield, taking bullets of sharp criticism aimed at Paetongtarn even though her defenders have continued insisting she is qualified for the top job. 

This stepping up as the fall guy has helped Thaksin deflect the focus away from his daughter’s performance and direct it towards his own movements in the game. 

Thaksin has been driving government policy and spearheading battles with political opponents. He most recently grabbed the spotlight while campaigning for Pheu Thai candidates ahead of the election for provincial administration organisation (PAO) chiefs on Saturday. 

Even though the Election Commission has warned that using government policies to campaign for votes in local elections risks violating election laws, Thaksin continues promoting his daughter’s government’s policies at every rally. 

Thaksin is capitalising on past successes that resonate with his red-shirt base. As an outsider, his political interventions may have sparked public dissatisfaction initially, but now it is seen as normal as his daughter is the premier. 

Yet, his frequent references to the coalition government on rally stages has raised concerns among Pheu Thai’s coalition partners. Plus, Thaksin is also leading attacks on the opposition People’s Party, as well as targeting political enemies such as former yellow-shirt leaders Sondhi Limthongkul and Jatuporn Prompan, and veteran politician and former premier Chuan Leekpai.

Though his moves to deflect heat from the prime minister have effectively captured media attention, his decision to step up personally instead of having aides handle the issues could have long-term consequences. 

The first test for this "Thaksin wave” will be the PAO elections on Saturday. Pheu Thai is fielding candidates in 25 provinces, having already secured eight seats in the nine PAO elections it contested last year. The ruling party is targeting at least another 13 PAO chief seats on Saturday.

If this goal is achieved, it could serve as a turning point for both Thaksin and Pheu Thai, and reignite their momentum. 

Since the “Thaksin wave” is no longer as strong as it once was, the Pheu Thai will need to secure victories at the provincial level to build a solid base for future general elections. 

Losing seats in the 2027 general election could well reduce Thaksin and Pheu Thai’s political leverage, as well as reduce the chance of securing party-list seats. 

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s sister Yingluck remains a “hostage”, living in self-exile with a prison sentence hanging over her head. To allow her to return home to freedom, Thaksin will need to ensure a victory in the 2027 election, so he has the leverage to strike a deal with the conservative establishment. 

Essentially, the Shinawatras need to retain power for as long as possible to ensure their political survival and prevent a backlash from the conservative side. 

The conservative faction had allied with its former foes, Thaksin and Pheu Thai, to fight their common enemy – the Orange faction or the progressive People’s Party. 

Since the conservative camp lacks the potential to win enough seats to form a government, it’s no surprise that Thaksin is confident that it has no option but to play along. 

Hence, every move he makes is arrogant, boasting of his own stability and strength, which further convinces people that he truly has a “super deal” in hand 

This “self-sacrificing” strategy Thaksin has adopted is perhaps the final battle for the Shinawatras. If they lose the election, their power is bound to be shaken, so every effort must be made to retain power for as long as possible – long enough to ensure the Shinawatra clan is safe.

(2025/01/27-00:00)