Lunar New Year spending expected to reach five-year high

UTCC forecasts 4.5% increase driven by stimulus measures

 

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) says consumer spending during the 2025 Lunar New Year is expected to reach a five-year high, exceeding 51.79 billion baht.

 

This represents a 4.5% increase from the previous year, driven by government stimulus measures, including cash transfers to the elderly and the Easy e-Receipt initiative.

 

Associate Professor Dr Thanavath Phonvichai, president and chief adviser of the UTCC's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre, told a press conference on Friday, "The increase in spending can be attributed to government stimulus measures, which began with post-flood relief efforts in October 2024 and continued with the 10,000-baht cash transfers to the elderly at the end of January." 

 

Meanwhile, he noted that the Easy e-Receipt initiative also correlates with the recovery of consumer confidence, as evident in the signs of economic revitalisation. However, citizens remain cautious about their expenditures and continue to save, with expectations for a robust economic recovery starting mid-year.

 



 

Thanavath further estimated that the Easy e-Receipt initiative will generate a slight economic circulation of around 30,000 to 50,000 million baht, providing a further boost to the Thai economy. Entrepreneurs believe that this measure will encourage increased consumer spending.
  

According to the survey, a majority of respondents (52.5%) considered the E-Receipt 2.0 initiative to be moderately beneficial, while nearly one-fifth (19.9%) believed it would have a high impact. Additionally, almost half (45.8%) of the respondents planned to utilise the elderly cash transfer for purchasing consumer goods and personal items.

 

Regarding the "Xingxing" incident, the disappearance of a Chinese actor near the Thai-Myanmar border, Thanavath pointed out that the impact is expected to be minimal and short-lived, with a projected decline in Chinese tourists of 0.4-3.7%. This translates to a potential loss of 1.65 billion to 14.29 billion baht, which could decrease GDP by 0.11-0.01%. 

 

Sectors most directly affected include retail, tourism-related services such as hotels and travel agencies, and restaurants. Indirect impacts may be felt in agriculture, food/beverage production, banking, and insurance. Nevertheless, the forecast remains optimistic, with the Thai economy still projected to grow by 3%.

 

A survey conducted by the UTCC's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre from January 13-19, involving 1,283 respondents across the country, revealed key spending patterns.

 



Umakamol Sunthornsurat, deputy director of the centre, discussed the survey results.

 

Most respondents plan to shop for goods and travel either domestically or internationally; however, a significant 99.5% intend to travel domestically, while only 0.5% plan to go abroad. The primary activities they anticipate during the celebration include giving alms (62.9%), dining out (43.3%), and general domestic spending (32.8%).

  

The majority of respondents expect to maintain their spending levels for items such as pork, chicken, gold and silver, and flowers, consistent with previous years. They observed that this year's increased expenditures may stem from higher prices compared with last year, with 41.4% reporting a slight rise in offering prices and 29.6% noting significant increases.

 

The survey also showed that this year's festival atmosphere is perceived as very lively by 36.3% of respondents, contributing to its vibrant spirit. Regarding funding their celebrations, 52.7% of respondents rely on their regular salary earnings. However, amid this festive spirit, the public is increasingly concerned about rising prices for essential goods, escalating travel costs, and issues related to home safety during the festivities.

 



 

Regarding the entrepreneurial outlook, most businesspeople believe that the spending value will rise due to price adjustments of goods and increased purchases. They anticipate a slight increase in the range of goods available while maintaining a lively overall atmosphere.

 

The survey findings, in alignment with the Ministry of Commerce, have prompted the Department of Internal Trade to monitor the availability and pricing of essential goods closely. To support citizens and ease their living expenses, discussions are taking place with manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers to coordinate promotional price reductions for products, both in physical stores and online.

(2025/01/25-00:00)