Sara Duterte conviction, acquittal at Senate hinges on poll results

MANILA, Philippines — One could already get a hint of the fate that awaits Vice President Sara Duterte at the Senate, which would transform into an impeachment court for her trial on several charges, including betrayal of public trust.

As pointed out by a political science professor, most, if not everything, depends on who will win in the election on May 12, especially now that Senate President Francis Escudero already said the proceedings will only commence on the day of the first regular session of the 20th Congress.

READ: VP Sara Duterte impeachment trial starts after Sona – Escudero

With an initial 215 signatures, the impeachment complaint against Duterte reached the Senate on Feb. 5, a few hours before it ended session for the election break, which will last until June 2, the day when the Senate will convene again until June 13.

READ: VP Sara Duterte impeachment complaint reaches Senate

Lawyer Domingo Cayosa, who served as president of the Integrated Bar of the Philippines, said the “[Senate] can convene to do its non-legislative function even if its legislative session or calendar ended” since “the Senate does not cease to exist after adjournment sine die” and that “sitting as an impeachment court is a non-legislative function and duty of the Senate.”

As stressed by Cayosa, there is a better chance of getting a decision out before the start of the 20th Congress if the Senate will start the trial already, or while it is on break, since both the Constitution and Senate Rules on Impeachment “discourage delays.”

“The term of senators is six years and they should continue to do their duty until the end of their term,” he told INQUIRER.net.

But Escudero seemed to have already decided that the proceedings will only commence on July 28, the day that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will deliver his State of the Nation Address at the Batasang Pambansa, even when Marcos already stated that he would call for a special session once requested by the Senate. “If the senators ask for it, yes,” he said.

Marcos had said this as Escudero pointed out at the Kapihan sa Senado that the Senate cannot legally start the impeachment trial, which can only proceed if the institution has convened as an impeachment court so that the senators can take their oath as judges.

“This could only be done when Congress is in session,” he said.

Act now

Senate Minority Leader Aquilino Pimentel III on Friday, Feb. 14, already asked Escudero to act without delay on the impeachment complaint against Duterte, saying that Section 3, Article XI of the Constitution provides that once the House of Representatives endorses the articles of impeachment, “trial by the Senate shall forthwith proceed.”

As pointed out by Pimentel, who is set to “graduate” at the end of the 19th Congress, “‘forthwith’ must be interpreted based on the Verba Legis Rule, so it should be given its plain and ordinary meaning—“without delay”. “The Senate’s duty is clear—to act on this matter without any delay,” he said in the letter, which was released this week.

READ: Pimentel tells Escudero: Acting fast on Duterte’s impeachment is Senate duty

Even the Supreme Court (SC) has been asked by lawyer Catalino Generillo Jr., a former special counsel of the Presidential Commission on Good Government, to issue a writ of mandamus “directing the members of the Senate to immediately constitute themselves into an impeachment court and forthwith conduct the public trial” of Duterte.

But on Tuesday, Feb. 18, the day the SC was expected to discuss the petition, which was raffled on Monday, Feb. 17, some lawyers from Mindanao filed a petition, too, asking the SC to direct the Senate to cease and desist from conducting the impeachment proceedings, asserting that it is based on a “constitutionally deficient” complaint.

The impeachment complaint, which is now signed by 240 out of the 306 members of the House of Representatives, stated that Duterte, who ran with Marcos in 2022 and received an overwhelming 32,208,417 votes, should be convicted for culpable violation of the Constitution, betrayal of public trust, graft and corruption, and high crimes.

READ: Sara Duterte impeached; House gets 215 to sign

As listed out, the alleged violations of Duterte include contracting an assassin to kill Marcos, First Lady Liza Araneta Marcos, and Speaker Martin Romualdez, misuse and malversation of public funds, inciting to sedition and rebellion, large-scale corruption, and allowing EJKs to continue when she was the mayor of Davao City.

Already decided?

Should the impeachment proceedings start only on July 28, Pimentel and Senators Nancy Binay, Grace Poe, and Cynthia Villar, will no longer be able to cast their judgment since they are already set to “graduate” after serving two consecutive six-year terms. Education Secretary Sonny Angara was set to “graduate,” as well, but resigned last year after his appointment.

Twelve incumbent senators, or those who got elected in 2022, including Sen. Robin Padilla, who committed last month to block the impeachment of Duterte, will comprise 50 percent of the impeachment court, whether it will start while the Senate is on break, once it convenes again on June 2, or at the beginning of the 20th Congress.

READ: Padilla vows to block impeachment complaints vs VP Duterte

Senators Pia Cayetano, Bato Dela Rosa, Bong Go, Lito Lapid, Imee Marcos, Bong Revilla, and Francis Tolentino are seeking reelection, and as pointed out in previous statements, three of these seven reelectionists already expressed opposition to the removal of the Vice President from office—Imee, Dela Rosa, and Go.

While Dela Rosa said on the day the complaint was received by the Senate that he will maintain his “political neutrality” in the trial despite his closeness with Duterte, he perceived himself and Go last year as “blockers” of the impeachment, saying that the House of Representatives charged them with crimes against humanity to “demolish” them so that the proceedings against Duterte would move.

READ: ‘Apolitical’ Dela Rosa says VP Duterte’s impeachment expected

Dela Rosa was the chief of the Philippine National Police when the previous administration, led by former President Rodrigo Duterte, waged the war on drugs that is believed to have killed thousands of Filipinos. Go, meanwhile, served as Special Assistant to the President, before winning in the 2019 election with Dela Rosa.

Nothing’s certain yet

As of the first month of 2025, both survey results from the Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia are yielding the same names, with 11 sealing a possible win after making it to the “Top 12” in the latest pre-election surveys. Imee and Lapid were the only exceptions as they were 14th and third in the SWS’ and sixth and 14th in Pulse Asia’s.

Rep. Erwin Tulfo (ACT-CIS) is leading in both survey results, but at the House of Representatives, he did not sign the impeachment complaint against Duterte so that he could “remain impartial” in case he will take part in the trial as one of the 24 judges who will decide on whether to convict the Vice President or not on at least one of the seven articles of impeachment.

Like him, Camille Villar, sister of Sen. Mark Villar, did not sign, too, as well as Revilla’s son and wife, Representatives Ramon Jolo Revilla and Lani Mercado of Cavite. Tulfo, Villar, and Revilla, and even Imee, who is against the impeachment are part of the administration-backed Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas, which is seen to clash with the one outrightly backing Duterte.

READ: Sen. Marcos rejects VP impeachment, wants focus on more pressing issues

Sen. Joel Villanueva’s father, Rep. Eduardo Villanueva (CIBAC), and Sen. Loren Legarda’s brother, Rep. Antonio Legarda of Antique, did not sign the complaint, either. Both Villanueva and Legarda will take part in the impeachment proceedings. However, Escudero already pointed out that he has no problem with how their relatives engaged in the process at the House of Representatives.

Sen. Raffy Tulfo’s son and wife, Representatives Ralph Tulfo of Quezon City and Jocelyn Tulfo (ACT-CIS), signed the impeachment complaint, but Maria Ela Atienza, a professor at the University of the Philippines, pointed out that it is too early to say whether the impeachment complaint would result in conviction, saying that no one is really certain on what would be the verdict eventually.

“It depends on the results of the midterm elections and behind-the-scenes lobbying and influence,” she told INQUIRER.net as she pointed out that most candidates are “trying to play safe in the campaigns.” “They want to get as many votes as possible,” Atienza said.

For Atienza, the actions of some candidates and their relatives “are signs of the weakness of political parties in the Philippines,” saying that “there is no party discipline but just a coalition of personalities usually crowding around popular and/or resource-rich political figures.”

Usually, this is “the incumbent who controls government resources,” she said.

Last month, the SWS released survey results showing that 41 percent of Filipinos want Duterte removed while 35 percent were against it. Some 19 percent were not decided.

(2025/02/19-10:23)